Recorded 16 June 2026

There is little doubt that we have been at odds with the RBA and much of the economic commentariat over the past six months.

Our contention has been that the Australian economic growth momentum peaked in November 2025 and entered 2026 with failing momentum. We argued that financial conditions were already tight by February and that further tightening would risk an unnecessarily excessive slowdown in activity.

It is now increasingly clear that the data has fallen our way. The latest round of data reveals an unemployment rate that is rising sharply, and clear indications that the economy had lost momentum in the first quarter, long before the full effects of the Iran conflict became apparent in the data.

Since that time, a combination of restrictive policy settings, labour market softening and structural changes from the Federal Budget have combined to profoundly reshape the investment landscape.

In his latest quarterly update, Tim Toohey (Head of Macro and Strategy) outlines why the RBA’s growth and inflation assumptions are increasingly being challenged — and what that means for interest rates, asset allocation and market outcomes more broadly.