Recorded 6 October 2025

Well, nobody can say that 2025 has been uneventful.

The source of most of the shocks continue to come from the US, with the US Government now in shut down, key economic data releases suspended, and high tariffs firmly in place (and with pharmaceuticals tariffs as high as 200% now being touted). And the US President continues to test the limits of the law, ordering US troops to “straighten out” key Democrat leaning cities.

In his latest macro update, Tim Toohey (Head of Macro and Strategy) explores the paradox of booming equity markets amid the political and economic turbulence. He unpacks how global monetary and fiscal stimulus—driven in part by US policy shocks—is fuelling asset price inflation, while touching on the effectiveness of traditional monetary economic theory.

Tim also shares a cautiously optimistic view on Australia’s growth trajectory, highlighting improving financial conditions, the positive impacts of a retreating public sector, and detailing why he still expects three rate cuts from the RBA in 2026.