Australia to emerge with V-shaped recovery

April 15, 2020
Australia to emerge with V-shaped recovery

Tim Toohey, Head of Macro and Strategy, talks on the likely path for the Australian economy moving into the post COVID-19 recovery.

Growth in the developed world is expected to fall by 3 per cent to 5 per cent this year based on an emerging consensus of how far economic activity will decline because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This is the view of Yarra Capital’s head of strategy and former Goldman Sachs economist, Tim Toohey, who argues a “V” shaped recovery is the most likely path for the economy. Pent-up demand and the relative strength of major trading partners such as China and South Korea are expected to support a rebound.

Significant uncertainties have led to assessments of the economic outlook varying widely but with increased information on the evolution of the outbreak in Australia and other countries, the disparity in forecasts has started to narrow.

“There’s starting to be a consensus that the numbers in most of the developed world will be somewhere around negative 3 to negative 5 per cent in terms of the decline in GDP in 2020,” Mr Toohey said.

Read more…. (subscription to The Australian Financial Review required)