Recorded 21 January 2026.

A fast‑moving geopolitical landscape, shifting central bank dynamics, and tightening financial conditions have already made the first weeks of 2026 feel eventful — and it’s only January.

In his preview of the March quarter, Tim Toohey (Head of Macro and Strategy) unpacks why markets have been rattled by everything from Venezuela’s political shockwaves to rising tensions across the Middle East and renewed questions around US Federal Reserve independence.

Amid the noise, one message stands out: despite the turbulence, rate cuts in both the US and Australia remain firmly on the table for 2026. With inflation pressures easing, productivity lifting, and financial conditions tightening locally, the case for the RBA to shift its stance is building.