Recorded 30 March 2026.

There have been some interesting March quarters over the past decade, but nothing quite compares with the first quarter of 2026.

With three large exogenous global shocks at hand (Iran, AI, and private credit), most central banks have taken the sensible route and paused until the implications of what is a highly fluid environment becomes clearer.

However, our own central bank has taken a different path and hiked twice and is threatening to tighten further, with interest rate markets now priced for three additional hikes before the end of calendar 2026. From our perspective, this looks and feels like policy error.